The Climate-System Historical Forecast Project: Providing Open Access to Seasonal Forecast Ensembles from Centers around the Globe

Ncep Dynamical Seasonal Forecast System 2000

JULY 2002 AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY | I n April 2000, a new dynamical seasonal prediction system was introduced at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP; the acronyms used in this paper are summarized in the appendix). The transition to the new system was hastened by a computer fire in September 1999 and subsequent changeover from a Cray C90 to an IBM-SP computer system....

S4CAST seasonal forecast model

Introduction Conclusions References

Weather Derivatives and Seasonal Forecast

The purpose of this paper is to incorporate the CPC (Climate Prediction Center) seasonal forecast in the temperature process so that conditional means and conditional variances of both the temperature and the CDD (Cooling Degree Day) may be redetermined in accordance with the seasonal forecasting probabilities. Under the Gaussian property of the underlying process, the prices of the CDD options...

Enhanced seasonal forecast skill following

Estimating Return Periods of Extreme Events from Ecmwf Seasonal Forecast Ensembles

Meteorological extremes have large impacts on society. The fact that approximately 40% of the Netherlands is below sea level makes this country especially vulnerable to flooding, both from the sea and from rivers. This has resulted in extensive research on the statistics of extremes. However, applications to meteorological and hydrological situations are always hampered by the brevity of the av...